Best player available or draft for need in rounds 1-3? | KC Chiefs Fanatic

Best player available or draft for need in rounds 1-3?

I’ve spent countless hours mulling over that very question as of late, and I really haven’t been able to nail an answer down yet. So instead of keeping all my thoughts on the subject to myself, I figured it would be more enjoyable to share them with my readers here instead.

On one hand you have the BPA (Best Player Available) theory which dictates that a team should ignore need and draft the best players regardless of position. And on the other you have a theory that mandates teams select their players based specifically on what positions they need to fill, regardless of draft value.

At first glance, the second option looks to be a joke, as teams clearly have to take into account whether a player is valuable enough to be selected in a given round. Simply selecting a player based on a team’s specific needs can fill holes in your roster with live bodies, but often, it can lead to disaster down the road as well, when the players you drafted regardless of value don’t pan out. And inevitably, teams that follow this approach strictly will watch as players they passed up in favor of a need pick end up tearing the league up with outstanding play, so this approach has to be taken on a case-by-case basis.

Back to the first route… Drafting solely for value and taking the BPA throughout the entire draft has its pluses and minuses as well. Potential draft picks’ stock can rise or fall with the slightest hint of info being released by an overeager scout, so many times teams that draft this way end up taking a player earlier than their true talent would indicate, as the scouting report on the player in question might be hyped up more than it should. This approach does not take into account a team’s specific needs either, so it isn’t for everyone. If you desperately need a offensive tackle but take a cornerback instead, is your team better off? Maybe, but you still need a tackle, and now another team could draft the guy your really want before you select again in the next round.

All of this leads to a bigger question in my mind:

What does this tell us about the Chiefs current approach to the draft?

The answer to that question is not as it seems I think, yet it’s more simple than one would first guess as well. If you take a close look at how the Chiefs have selected in the two previous drafts (since Herm Edwards became the Head Coach) it’s pretty obvious that the Chiefs are employing a mixture of the two approaches. Instead of focusing solely on improving the team by addressing every need, the Chiefs have carefully selected players that they feel will not only fill a need, but have enough value - draft wise - to warrant a selection at that juncture.

You can see it first hand in the table I set up with the Chiefs last two draft classes in rounds 1-3:

Year Round 1 Round 2 Round 3
2007 WR - Dwayne Bowe DT - Turk McBride DT - Tank Tyler
2006 DE - Tamba Hali S - Bernard Pollard QB - Brodie Croyle

In both 2006 and 2007 the Chiefs chose players based on need and the BPA approach. Tamba Hali was the highest rated player on the Chiefs board in 2006 - according to both Herm and Carl - and he also filled a somewhat dire need as well, since former DE Eric Hicks wasn’t worth much by that point.

The same cannot be said for Bernard Pollard, as he was solely a BPA pick, and did not immediately fill a specific need on the team. But in the 3rd round of that year, Brodie Croyle fit the bill on both accounts. The Chiefs needed to select a QB that could become their starter over time, and they needed a talented backup in case of injury to both Damon Huard and Trent Green. So the Chiefs applied both principles to their draft strategy that year.

And in 2007, the same exact strategy played out, as the Chiefs drafted Dwayne Bowe, who filled an immediate need at WR and was the BPA at that point as well. The team then drafted solely BPA with Turk McBride, and switched back to using both approaches in drafting Tank Tyler in round 3.

So all in all, I think it’s safe to say that the Chiefs could very well end up applying the same type of strategy to their selections this year, at least in rounds 1-3. Mixing the two approaches up and using them both instead of focusing on one way or the other allows the Chiefs to maximize the draft selection value and gives them talented players at positions of need as well. And that is what separates good teams from bad ones in my mind, as teams like the Patriots and Colts never seem to be in a rush to take a player at a specific position. They bide their time and draft their highest rated players in each round instead, and I think their level of success in the past few seasons speaks volumes as to the effectiveness.

Hopefully the Chiefs stick with their current approach and draft with a mix of strategies instead of following just one. This team can ill afford to relapse back into poor draft classes, as they have little to no talent available at many positions as it is. This year is crucial to the overall level of success the team will enjoy or not enjoy over the next few seasons, and by making sure to use both methods equally, the Chiefs can set themselves up for a Super Bowl run in the near future.

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One Comment

  1. Posted March 28, 2008 at 8:50 am | Permalink

    Right on. Too many people think that draft strategy is a zero sum game. All teams use a mix of BPA and drafting for need.

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